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EXHIBIT B
<br /> D.j.Lee et at I Ecoirgicat Economics 111(2015)100-110 105
<br /> number of locations with newly introduced(w=1)incubating infesta- Table 2
<br /> tions that escaped detection is defined: Little Fire Ant Infestation by sector in years 5 and 35.
<br /> �__.........____.�_.._ Year Year
<br /> Nnnt,wtrte,mk — i iLnroduced I NArrn—vS,t 1_(dt a 35
<br /> 14 rt Reduced Current
<br /> nt Reducrd
<br /> Senor feast coat .._
<br /> ..,-
<br /> 1cWisest
<br /> management man ment ma ',.MCnt , t
<br /> Ag The number of newly introduced incubating infestations that have Lodging
<br /> been detected(w= 1)is defined: Nur4e`1
<br /> Other
<br /> Ninrubate Ninrraduced t Nara wth detect 15 Nx ldenawt e
<br /> t.t,w = d,t it-t i.t ) ,r a ,
<br /> srhons .,€irk , .._F 4': ,ww__'. �-_,
<br /> Percent infested.
<br /> Incubating infestations can be destroyed with probability A 1,so the
<br /> decision to eradicate is d=(0,1).If drzadr`°°= 1 then the Nx W,r're '0
<br /> If d€rodecnte 0 the number of known locations with incubating papula- Of the incoming propagules only a proportion NI"'survive to become
<br /> tions is defined: Incubating infestations become established after newly introduced infestations:
<br /> 3 years.The number of locations with established LFA populations is
<br /> defined: N:Mr i.trcxha-f.d_AsurrineNin� (22)
<br /> i.
<br /> Nimtibaa _
<br /> Incubate 1 .derndzeute) (1 fi)
<br /> t,t=ti,rvkl ,,l.w is
<br /> 22.3.3.Intrinsic Growth.For our model,we define intrinsic growth as vi-
<br /> ash ersh uare ntu1100,ung)NYstbbliw N,sr"hli_7 � N;trttbr_,� �Niit__��1 (l7) able ant colonies crawling from one location to another.For LFA,the rate
<br /> of intrinsic growth A ,aw ,is slow.!°We simulate intrinsic growth as in-
<br /> All established infestations are assumed to be"known"infestations
<br /> creasing in the number of established locations A and de-
<br /> due to the damages they cause and are thus candidates for mitigation creasing as the sector approaches full infestation. The number of
<br /> treatment. The effectiveness of treatment O'"i"gtfe is defined in locations newly infested from intrinsic growth is defined:
<br /> Eq. (13),The number of locations with established LFA colonies is
<br /> ` eunnit5h.
<br /> defined: ernwrh growth establish Nr,r
<br /> N t =A N,,t 1— N"'a ). (23)
<br /> I
<br /> Nestabiisht t.t=Neuaitsh7 (1—omitIF%gate), (13
<br /> i, -
<br /> The number of infested locations in each sector i is: 3.Management Scenarios
<br /> "final _"establish "incubate }..Nirxubate(unk), i 9,) To assess the potential economic damages from Little Fire Anton the
<br /> r.t , — ,.r ;,t island of Hawaii and potential benefits from managing Little Fire Ant.
<br /> we evaluated a current management(status quo)scenario and two al-
<br /> 2.2.3.2. Human Transport, Through human movement(to and from ternate scenarios:reduced management(a reduction in public manage-
<br /> work,school,and outdoor recreation)and goods exchange,live viable ment efforts to contain infestations and prevent spread)and least cost
<br /> ant colonies are dispersed among and between sectors. (a theoretical Pareto optimum that assumes perfect knowledge and
<br /> Viable ant colonies transported out of one sector to another sector is full cooperation;the sum of management costs and economic damages
<br /> termed an Outgoing propagule.The number of Outgoing propagules Is minimized),
<br /> N')r is proportionate Ary"'"a to the number of infested locations Current public management is led by the Hawaii Ant Lab(University
<br /> N `°bi'P less the effectiveness of prevention efforts Or— and is of Hawaii).With a staff of five people,the Lab provides research,out-
<br /> expressed as follows: reach,education,training,advice and limited mitigation activities for
<br /> all invasive ant issues in the State of Hawaii including maintaining a
<br /> t estdbtesh utvarian/ �p event' website"with information on impacts and remedies.The Big Island In-
<br /> N ru =Ni,t Ai 11—�i.t )' (20) vasive Species Committee provides education and outreach on Little
<br /> Fire Ant and other invasive species on the island of Hawaii.
<br /> Viable ant colonies transported into one sector from other sectors For the current management scenario,we assumed that residents
<br /> are termed Incoming propagules N;?r_ Incoming propagules are the and businesses with LFA infestations treat periodically to mitigate
<br /> sum of Outgoing propagules Kr transported from all other sectors local impacts but not sufficiently to eradicate LFA from their property
<br /> i i,defined as follows: or halt the spread to other properties.Treatment occurs when infesta-
<br /> tion reaches 20%,then control effort is proportionate to the level of in-
<br /> " \ NVrwu festation. In the Park and School sectors, LFA infestations remain
<br /> N11 ... (Elii "Tit �1_ �rar ). (21} r2
<br /> untreated.
<br /> For the reduced management scenario,we assumed a cut in public
<br /> The matrix K captures the commerce on the island likely to transport funding for mitigation treatment,prevention,detection,outreach and
<br /> education which would result in a faster rate of spread.Residents and
<br /> ant colonies between sectors.The matrix elements Icy,are nonnegative businesses with LEA infestations treat periodically to mitigate local im-
<br /> 0 5 k, < 1 with values that sum to one ikj.i==1,Uninfested and less pacts but not sufficiently to eradicate LFA from their property or halt
<br /> 3
<br /> the spread to other properties.Treatment occurs when infestation
<br /> infested sectors are assumed more susceptible to incoming propagules
<br /> than heavily infested sectors hence inclusion of the factor (1--Nemo1. 10 Ten meters per year.
<br /> www_littlefireant .coru.
<br /> f. Az present,infested public schools and parks are being treated for LFA.However,when
<br /> this study began.schools were not treated due to lack of funding and parks were not treat.
<br /> 4 Termed"base rate invasion probability"(Leung et al.,2002). ed because use of anticides was not permitted.
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