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are employed in agriculture; 13% in services, including hotels; 16% in wholesale
<br />and retail trade; 11% in manufacturing; and 9% are self-employed agricultural
<br />workers. Per capita personal income in 1968 was $3,174.
<br />Women workers play an important role in the County. The participation
<br />rate, or the ratio between labor force and population, is higher in Hawaii
<br />County than in any other area of the State. This indicates that a fairly sizable
<br />percentage of the women in the County are working.
<br />A study of social characteristics and services in the County was prepared
<br />by the Planning Committee of the Hawaii Island United Fund (HUI) in May
<br />1969. The study contained data on various health and social indicators for the
<br />County of Hawaii and the judicial districts. The following table shows some of
<br />the County's social health indicators as compared to the State or Oahu. Further
<br />details on social characteristics are contained in HUI's report.
<br />Table 5. Community Health Indicator Norms
<br />Hawaii County And State Or Oahu
<br />1967
<br />Hawaii
<br />State or
<br />Social Health Indicators
<br />County
<br />Oahu (0)
<br />% of Families Under $3,000 income
<br />15.4%
<br />7.6%(0)
<br />% of Families Under $4,000 income
<br />25.0%
<br />15.0%(0)
<br />Family Disorganization (Divorced, Separated, or
<br />Widowed), 1966
<br />5.8%
<br />8.5%(0)
<br />Aid to Families 8c Dependent Children, Rate/1000
<br />population
<br />36.2
<br />20.3
<br />General Assistance Cases, Rate/1000 population
<br />5.3
<br />3.5
<br />Old Age Assistance, Rate/1000 population
<br />5.4
<br />2.5
<br />Social Security Benefits, Rate/100 population
<br />14.5
<br />8.3
<br />All Police Complaints, Part I & II Crimes, Rate/
<br />1000 population
<br />36.7
<br />39.7 (0)
<br />Juvenile Arrests, Rate/1000 population
<br />7.5
<br />10.9 (0)
<br />Juveniles Under Court Jurisdiction, Rate/1000
<br />population
<br />4.2
<br />6.1 (0)
<br />Tuberculosis Cases, Rate/1000 population
<br />4.5
<br />3.6
<br />Illegitimate Births, Rate/100 live births
<br />7.5
<br />8.4
<br />Mental Health Patients, Rate/1000 population
<br />13.7
<br />7.8
<br />School Dropouts, Rate/1000 school enrollment
<br />3.6
<br />2.3
<br />School Suspensions, Rate/1000 school enrollment
<br />21.4
<br />19.0
<br />SOURCE: Hawaii Island Planning Committee. "An Overview of Social Characteristics and Services
<br />of the County of Hawaii," May 1969.
<br />Recently there has been increasing concern about the social problems
<br />caused by the economy shifting from a rural -agricultural status to one more
<br />urban. Studies are being conducted by the State and various agencies to exam-
<br />ine what are the social ramifications of, for example, a resort complex close to
<br />a rural community.
<br />THE FUTURE OF HAWAII ISLAND
<br />Introduction
<br />The County's General Plan is a policy document which sets forth guidelines
<br />for future activities in the island of Hawaii for the next few decades. In order to
<br />plan for the future, it is necessary to anticipate the number of residents and
<br />visitors to be served and the kinds of facilities and resources needed to fulfill
<br />their needs.
<br />This section contains projections of population and the economy. Other
<br />considerations concerning visions of the future of the island and some of the
<br />alternatives are also presented here.
<br />Forecasters are faced with an impossible task of trying to predict the future.
<br />There are so many known and unknown variables that it is difficult even to
<br />decide which items are pertinent. The only way to cope with these variables is
<br />to make assumptions about them.
<br />In traditional public planning efforts, entire plans have been based on the
<br />achievement of the projected levels of population. In many of these cases, where
<br />population numbers are goals, plans become obsolete when the projected num-
<br />ber of residents is not achieved or is surpassed. This General Plan effort uses
<br />the projected levels of population only as a guide in planning. The projections
<br />are educated guesses of what could occur in the future. They should never be
<br />taken as actual facts of the future. The goals, policies, standards, and recom-
<br />mendations of this plan are intended to be flexible enough to cope with popula-
<br />tion levels below or above the projections stated in this section.
<br />Projections
<br />Population projections for the County of Hawaii were developed through
<br />the use of relationships between economic activity, employment, and popula-
<br />tion. This approach differs from traditional methods of forecasting population
<br />which include: 1) projecting past annual average rate of growth or other
<br />mathematical extrapolations from past data; 2) assumptions regarding in- and
<br />out -migration trends; 3) cohort -survival method; and 4) using percentages of
<br />the other islands, the State, region, or national population. These methods were
<br />not used for the following reasons:
<br />A. Projecting historical trends of population and migration would result
<br />in a declining population for the island.
<br />B. Out -migration during the 1930-1960 period left serious imbalances in
<br />the male-female ratio as well as in the age distribution of the popula-
<br />tion which if the cohort -survival method were applied to this data would
<br />have unmeaningful results.
<br />C. Historical data do not indicate that population changes in the County
<br />paralleled changes in the other islands, the State, region, or nation.
<br />The economic activity -population approach appears to be more meaning-
<br />ful. This approach entails the forecasting of employment in basic and secondary
<br />industries, utilizing a multiplier between this employment and population. This
<br />also allows planners to examine the reasons for growth or the lack of it.
<br />Basic industries which receive income from outside the County are assumed
<br />to be the foundation of the economy and the key to the development of the
<br />island. Industries which are considered basic are agriculture, tourism, the manu-
<br />facturing of export products, and research and development.
<br />Secondary industries are those enterprises which service basic industries
<br />and/or population. Retail and wholesale trade, bakeries, utilities, financial
<br />institutions, and local government are examples of industries in this category.
<br />After an examination of the various industries which exist in the County
<br />the following assumptions were adopted:
<br />
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