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<br />1. Agriculture
<br />Agricultural employment, especially in the sugar industry has been de-
<br />clining over the past ten years but has recently become fairly stable.
<br />As major plantations consolidate and workers reach retirement age,
<br />sugar employment should decline further. Factors offsetting this decline
<br />will be the expansion and labor demands of .the macadamia nut, papaya,
<br />and flower industries. EMPLOYMENT SHOULD REMAIN STABLE
<br />DURING THE PLANNING PERIOD.
<br />2. Manufacturing
<br />Non -sugar basic manufacturing enterprises include garment manu-
<br />facturing, food processing for export, lumber milling and wood product
<br />production. MODEST INCREASES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
<br />CATEGORY.
<br />3. Research and Development
<br />While there is tremendous potential for expansion in this industry, it
<br />is extremely difficult to assess the magnitude of employment expansion.
<br />This problem concerns the basic funding source of Research and Devel-
<br />opment which is government. Educational facilities such as the univer-
<br />sity are considered part of secondary or support industries. RE-
<br />SEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IS ASSUMED TO GENERATE A
<br />MODEST NUMBER OF BASIC EMPLOYEES.
<br />4. Tourism
<br />The visitor industry appears to have the strongest potential for rapid
<br />expansion of a large magnitude. EMPLOYMENT IN TOURISM IS
<br />EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY.
<br />Three sets of projections were developed, Series A, B, and C. The major
<br />variable in each of these projections was the rate of growth of the visitor in-
<br />dustry. Revealed plans for resort complexes and other factors were considered
<br />in the forecast of hotel rooms.
<br />Series A is the most conservative projection. The rate of growth of 3% per
<br />annum coincides with the rate of growth of employment in the County during
<br />the last five years.
<br />Series B projections were developed as a medium series. These projec-
<br />tions lie between Series A and C. The per annum growth rate anticipated in
<br />Series B is approximately 4%.
<br />SERIES A
<br />SERIES B
<br />Hotel, Employment, And Population
<br />Hotel, Employment, And Population
<br />Estimates, Hawaii County 1960-1990
<br />Hotel Rooms Employment
<br />Population
<br />1960
<br />860 22,293
<br />61,332
<br />1970
<br />3,438 29,000
<br />63,468
<br />1975
<br />5,600 32,600
<br />70,000
<br />1980
<br />8,900 39,200
<br />84,000
<br />1990
<br />15,600 53,600
<br />115,000
<br />Series B projections were developed as a medium series. These projec-
<br />tions lie between Series A and C. The per annum growth rate anticipated in
<br />Series B is approximately 4%.
<br />Series C is an extremely optimistic outlook of the County's future. It is
<br />assumed that 30,000 hotel rooms will be built in the County by 1990. Enough
<br />land is presently zoned for the construction of 32,000 hotel rooms. There are
<br />some large developments planned in areas which do not have resort zoning.
<br />The average annual growth rate of population in Series C is slightly over 5%.
<br />SERIES C
<br />SERIES B
<br />Hotel, Employment, And Population
<br />Hotel, Employment, And Population
<br />Estimates, Hawaii County 1960-1990
<br />Estimates, Hawaii County 1960-1990
<br />Population
<br />1960
<br />860 22,293
<br />Hotel Rooms - Employment
<br />Population
<br />3,438 29,000
<br />1960
<br />860 22,293
<br />61,332
<br />87,000
<br />1970
<br />3,438 29,000
<br />63,468
<br />1990
<br />1975
<br />7,500 36,500
<br />78,000
<br />1980
<br />12,000 45,900
<br />99,000
<br />1990
<br />20,000 64,000
<br />137,000
<br />Series C is an extremely optimistic outlook of the County's future. It is
<br />assumed that 30,000 hotel rooms will be built in the County by 1990. Enough
<br />land is presently zoned for the construction of 32,000 hotel rooms. There are
<br />some large developments planned in areas which do not have resort zoning.
<br />The average annual growth rate of population in Series C is slightly over 5%.
<br />It should be emphasized that these projections are not statements of goals
<br />nor desired levels of economic activity. These projections are merely extensions
<br />of existing trends.
<br />In view of the economic activity experienced by the County over the past
<br />five years, the trend of growth seems to be rapid and sustained. The levels of
<br />future economic activity, however, will require a great deal of community re-
<br />sources and may cause several problems.
<br />The projections indicate that there will be a heavy dependence on tourism.
<br />At present 7.4% of the County's employees work in hotels and 6.8% are employed
<br />in visitor -related facilities. Employment in the traditional economic base of the
<br />County, agriculture and manufacturing, accounts for 30.6%. By 1990 hotel and
<br />visitor support workers may account for employment ranging from 41% in Series
<br />A to 51% in Series C.
<br />Since the County already has a high percentage of its population working,
<br />any increased labor force to accompany large and rapid growth will probably
<br />have to be met by in -migration from areas outside the County.
<br />Rapid development without adequate controls also has an inflationary
<br />tendency on land and housing prices. Unless wages accelerate commensurate
<br />with the same rate of inflation, present situations could be further aggravated.
<br />TSUNAMI ItdtttdC%t [CI
<br />TOPOGRAPHY
<br />CLIMATE VOLCANIC ACTIVITYm y DRAINA
<br />fY ., _.....'
<br />PHYSICAL
<br />y YI¢ it IY .w 4of
<br />, I
<br />TRANSPORTATION
<br />ECONOMIC PICTURE
<br />POPULATION
<br />COMMUNITY FACILITY NEEDS
<br />EXISTING LAND USE
<br />m=" RECREATION
<br />SERIES C
<br />Hotel, Employment, And Population
<br />Estimates, Hawaii County 1960-1990
<br />.Hotel Rooms Employment
<br />Population
<br />1960
<br />860 22,293
<br />61,332
<br />1970
<br />3,438 29,000
<br />63,468
<br />1975
<br />9,600 40,500
<br />87,000
<br />1980
<br />16,000 53,400
<br />115,000
<br />1990
<br />30,000 82,800
<br />178,000
<br />It should be emphasized that these projections are not statements of goals
<br />nor desired levels of economic activity. These projections are merely extensions
<br />of existing trends.
<br />In view of the economic activity experienced by the County over the past
<br />five years, the trend of growth seems to be rapid and sustained. The levels of
<br />future economic activity, however, will require a great deal of community re-
<br />sources and may cause several problems.
<br />The projections indicate that there will be a heavy dependence on tourism.
<br />At present 7.4% of the County's employees work in hotels and 6.8% are employed
<br />in visitor -related facilities. Employment in the traditional economic base of the
<br />County, agriculture and manufacturing, accounts for 30.6%. By 1990 hotel and
<br />visitor support workers may account for employment ranging from 41% in Series
<br />A to 51% in Series C.
<br />Since the County already has a high percentage of its population working,
<br />any increased labor force to accompany large and rapid growth will probably
<br />have to be met by in -migration from areas outside the County.
<br />Rapid development without adequate controls also has an inflationary
<br />tendency on land and housing prices. Unless wages accelerate commensurate
<br />with the same rate of inflation, present situations could be further aggravated.
<br />TSUNAMI ItdtttdC%t [CI
<br />TOPOGRAPHY
<br />CLIMATE VOLCANIC ACTIVITYm y DRAINA
<br />fY ., _.....'
<br />PHYSICAL
<br />y YI¢ it IY .w 4of
<br />, I
<br />TRANSPORTATION
<br />ECONOMIC PICTURE
<br />POPULATION
<br />COMMUNITY FACILITY NEEDS
<br />EXISTING LAND USE
<br />m=" RECREATION
<br />
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