|
Article
<br /> 81. Natural Resources Conservation Service.National Engineering Handbook-Part 630 110. Johnson,J.V.,Dick,J.T.A.&Pincheira-Donoso,D.Local anthropogenic stress does not
<br /> Hydrology Ch.10(US Department of Agriculture,2004). exacerbate coral bleaching under global climate change.Global Ecol.Biogeogr.31,
<br /> 82. Glysson,G.D.Sediment-Tansport Curves Report No.87-218(USGS,1987). 1228-1236(2022).
<br /> 83. Gove,J.M.et at.Quantifying climatological ranges and anomalies for Pacific coral reef 111. Wear,S.L.&Thurber,R.V.Sewage pollution:mitigation is key for coral reef stewardship.
<br /> ecosystems.PLoS ONE 8,e61974(2013). Ann.N.Y.Acad.Sci.1355,15-30(2015).
<br /> 84. Gove,J.M.et at.Coral reef benthic regimes exhibit non-linear threshold responses to 112. Jokiel,P.L.,Hunter,C.L.,Taguchi,S.&Watarai,L.Ecological impact of a fresh-water'reef
<br /> natural physical drivers.Mar.Ecol.Prog.Ser.522,33-48(2015). kill'in Kaneohe Bay,Oahu,Hawai'i.Coral Reefs 12,177-184(1993).
<br /> 85. Tolman,H.L.A mosaic approach to wind wave modeling.Ocean Model.Online 25,35-47 113. Rodgers,Ku.S.et at.Impact to coral reef populations at Haena and Pila'a,Kaua'i,following
<br /> (2008). a record 2018 freshwater flood event.Diversity 13,66(2021).
<br /> 86. Booij,N.,Ris,R.C.&Holthuijsen,L.H.A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: 114. Dollar,S.J.Wave stress and coral community structure in Hawai'i.Coral Reefs 1,71-81
<br /> 1.model description and validation.J.Geophys.Res.(Oceans)104,7649-7666(1999). (1982).
<br /> 87. Li,N.et at.Thirty-four years of Hawai'i wave hindcast from downscaling of climate 115. Storlazzi,C.D.,Brown,E.K.,Field,M.E.,Rodgers,K.&Jokiel,P.L.A model for wave
<br /> forecast system reanalysis.Ocean Model.Online 100,78-95(2016). control on coral breakage and species distribution in the Hawaiian Islands.Coral Reefs
<br /> 88. Graham,N.A.J.et at.Changing role of coral reef marine reserves in a warming climate. 24,43-55(2005).
<br /> Nat.Commun.11,2000(2020). 116. Chassot,E.et at.Global marine primary production constrains fisheries catches.Ecol.
<br /> 89. Anderson,M.,Gorley,R.N.&Clarke,R.K.Permanova+for Primer.Guide to Software and Lett.13,495-505(2010).
<br /> Statistical Methods(Primer-E Limited,2008). 117. Duarte,C.&Cebrian,J.The fate of marine autotrophic production.Limnol.Oceanogr.41,
<br /> 90. Anderson,M.J.&Willis,T.J.Canonical analysis of principal coordinates:a useful method 1758-1766(1996).
<br /> of constrained ordination for ecology.Ecology 84,511-525(2003). 118. Weis,V.M.Cellular mechanisms of Cnidarian bleaching:stress causes the collapse of
<br /> 91. Cote,I.M.,Gill,J.A.,Gardner,T.A.&Watkinson,A.R.Measuring coral reef decline symbiosis.J.Exp.Biol.211,3059-3066(2008).
<br /> through meta-analyses.Philos.Trans.R.Soc.Ser.B:Biol.Sci.360,385-395(2005). 119. Gonzalez-Espinosa,P.C.&Donner,S.D.Cloudiness reduces the bleaching response of
<br /> 92. Graham,N.A.J.et at.Climate warming,marine protected areas and the ocean-scale coral reefs exposed to heat stress.Glob.Change Biol.27,3474-3486(2021).
<br /> integrity of coral reef ecosystems.PLoS ONE3,e3039(2008). 120. MacNeil,M.A.et at.Recovery potential of the world's coral reef fishes.Nature 520,
<br /> 93. Wood,S.,Scheipl,F.&Wood,M.S.Package'gamm4'.Am.Stat.45,0.2-5(2017). 341-344(2015).
<br /> 94. R Core Team.MuMln:Multi-Model Inference R package v.1.13.4(R Foundation for Statistical
<br /> Computing,2015).
<br /> 95. Hurvich,C.M.&Tsai,C.-L.Regression and time series model selection in small samples. AcknowLedgements We thank A.Dillon of Aline Designs for graphics support,the numerous
<br /> Biometrika76,297-307(1989). divers,boat drivers and support staff from the Hawai'i Division of Aquatic Resources,National
<br /> 96. Safaie,A.et at.High frequency temperature variability reduces the risk of coral bleaching. Park Service and The Nature Conservancy for logistical and data collection support,individuals
<br /> Nat.Commun.9,1671(2018). from the Golf Course Superintendents Association of America,M.Johnson and R.Doog for their
<br /> 97. Brant,R.Assessing proportionality in the proportional odds model for ordinal logistic input in determining the golf course nitrogen application rates,R.Longman for contributing
<br /> regression.Biometrics 46,1171-1178(1990). updated rainfall data,E.Darling for providing data layers from ref.57,P.Neubauer and Y.Eynaud
<br /> 98. McFadden,D.Conditional LogitAnalysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior(Academic Press, for analytical advice,W.Walsh for being an early supporter of this effort and J.Link and
<br /> 1974). J.Samhouri for their review of an early version of the manuscript.This research was supported
<br /> 99. Burnham,K.P.&Anderson,D.R.(eds)Model selection and multimodel inference. by NOAA's Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program(contribution no.2022_7),NOAA's
<br /> A practical information-theoretic approach(Springer,1998). Fisheries and The Environment Program,NOAA's Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center,and
<br /> 100.Richards,S.A.Testing ecological theory using the information-theoretical approach: grants from the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program(grant no.NA16NOS4820059)and
<br /> examples and cautionary results.Ecology86,2805-2814(2005). National Marine Fisheries Service,Office of Habitat Conservation(grant nos.EA133F17SE1203
<br /> 101. Individual Wastewater System Database(Hawai'i Department of Health,2017). and NA17NMF4630301)and the Harold K.L.Castle Foundation.
<br /> 102. Underground Injection Control Permit Application Files(Hawai'i Department of Health,
<br /> 2017). Author contributions J.M.G.,G.J.W.and J.L.conceived the study.J.M.G.,G.J.W.and J.L.developed
<br /> 103. R Core Team.R:A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing.R Foundation for and implemented the analyses.J.M.G.and G.J.W.led the writing of the manuscript with G.P.A.
<br /> Statistical Computing https://www.R-project.org/(2021). and J.L.All other authors made substantive contributions to the manuscript and contributed
<br /> 104. Clarke,K.&Gorley,R.Getting started with PRIMER v.7.PRIMER-E.Plymouth(Plymouth data that were central to this effort.
<br /> Marine Laboratory,2015).
<br /> 105. Beyer,H.L.et at.Risk-sensitive planning for conserving coral reefs under rapid climate Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests.
<br /> change.Conserv.Lett.11,e12587(2018).
<br /> 106. Darling,E.S.et at.Social-environmental drivers inform strategic management of coral Additional information
<br /> reefs in the Anthropocene.Nat.Ecol.Evol.3,1341-1350(2019). Supplementary information The online version contains supplementary material available at
<br /> 107. Andrello,M.et at.A global map of human pressures on tropical coral reefs.Conserv.Lett. https://doi.org/10.1038/s4l586-023-06394-w.
<br /> 15,e12858(2022). Correspondence and requestsfor materials should be addressed to Jamison M.Gove or
<br /> 108. Adam,T.C.,Burkepile,D.E.,Ruttenberg,B.I.&Paddack,M.J.Herbivory and the resilience Gareth J.Williams.
<br /> of Caribbean coral reefs:knowledge gaps and implications for management.Mar.Ecol. Peer review information Nature thanks Joshua Cinner,Nicholas Graham,Peter Mumby and the
<br /> Prog.Ser.520,1-20(2015). other,anonymous,reviewer(s)for their contribution to the peer review of this work.Peer
<br /> 109. Williams,I.D.et at.Human,oceanographic and habitat drivers of Central and Western reviewer reports are available.
<br /> Pacific coral reef fish assemblages.PLoS ONE 10,e0120516(2015). Reprints and permissions information is available at http://www.nature.com/reprints.
<br />
|